Hexun
Abstract: The risk of Brexit cooldown, the US election will start, the US dollar has signs of decline, non-US to replenish digestion
US contracted sales in May fell more than expected, and the US dollar fluctuated in a short-term, mainly due to the decline in overall contracted rates in many important regions of the country, which meant that the US housing market lost its growth momentum in the second quarter. Personal consumption expenditures rose for two consecutive months, supported by demand for automobiles and other products; but the UK public investment fears hurt confidence and cause households to cut consumer spending; this UK event may lead to delays or reductions in capital expenditures for businesses Investment is under downward pressure.
After the Brexit brought volatility, the market has begun to rebound. The Bank of England may cut interest rates later this year. After the UK exited the EU, there were many uncertainties in the UK. Many British people blamed the Brexit on a series of social problems such as the sharp depreciation of the British currency, the sharp increase in the cost of living, rising import costs, employment difficulties and uncertain economic prospects. On June 29, a two-day new EU summit came to an end. The leaders of the summits, including the United Kingdom, discussed how to deal with the Brexit and finally reached an agreement: urged Britain to propose Brexit as soon as possible. Apply, put the exact time of Brexit, how to leave the EU and many other matters on the agenda.
The yen Asian market rose slightly, although the Japanese industrial output data released earlier today was less than expected. Investors are increasingly concerned about the willingness and ability of the Bank of Japan to take further easing measures. On Wednesday (June 29), BNP Paribas issued a comment saying that the Japanese government has indicated that it is difficult to effectively intervene in the foreign exchange market. One of the reasons is the lack of support from the international community, which makes the Bank of Japan have no choice but to further Relax monetary policy to counter the yen's strength. In addition, if the Bank of Japan does not move, the appreciation of the yen is in danger of accelerating. More easing measures will likely focus on reducing the excess deposit reserve rate from the current -0.1% to -0.3%. If the yen strengthens further, interest rate cuts may be even larger.
The financial turmoil once again pushed investors to safe-haven assets including US Treasury bonds and gold. Only this time, gold has another good advantage. Not only does the possibility of interest rate hikes in the United States not exist for most of this year, but the market now even believes that the possibility of interest rate cuts before the end of September is greater than the interest rate hike, which in turn pushes the yield of US Treasury bonds lower, boosting the attractiveness of gold. The departure of the British referendum from the EU will stimulate global central banks to increase their easing efforts to boost the economy. As a hedge asset, gold will be supported. Since the Brexit referendum last Friday, gold ETF positions in the three transactions have increased by 1.9%, the largest increase since March this year.
At present, the oil price has stabilized at the $50 mark, which is in line with OPEC's end of the year. Crude oil production has been greatly reduced due to successive supply disruptions in countries such as Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela. In addition, with the arrival of the summer driving season, the demand for US crude oil is expected to be strong, and the oversupply of the oil market has eased, which is good for oil prices.
Today's US dollar trend is concerned with the 95.90 first-line performance. The current trend of the orbital trading method can be used to see the current short-selling trend. First, bearish, the target is near 95.20. If the reverse breaks through 95.90, the target is at least 96.40. Near 96.80.
The euro is concerned about the performance of the 1.180 near the US dollar. The current trend of the orbital trading method can be seen in the short-term bullish trend above the golden transition line. First, the first target is near 1.1150, and the second target is near the green transition zone of 1.1220. Reverse effective break through 1.1080, turn to short, the target is up to around 1.0970.
USD/JPY is concerned about the performance around 102.60. It can be seen that the current trend is a short-term bullish trend. The first is to see more, the target is near 103.20. If the reverse breaks through 102.60, the target is short and the target is at least around 102.10. Up to 101.70.
Gold pays attention to the performance around 1312. The current trend of the orbital trading method can be seen in the short-term bullish trend above the golden transition line. First, look at the first, near the first target 1326, near the second target 1339, if the reverse effectively breaks through 1312, Turned to short, near the target 1298.
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)Shaoxing Yuecheng Xinan Apparel Co., Ltd. , https://www.xinanapparel.com