Zheng cotton short-term rebound wait and see

Domestic disk: Zheng cotton 1609 contract oscillation rebounded on the 4th, opened at 10165 yuan / ton, closing at 10,235 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose by 110 yuan / ton, the volume decreased significantly, increased 27672 hand positions to 598,306 hands .

External disk trend: ICE cotton futures closed higher on Thursday as US export sales were strong and the US dollar weakened. ICE May cotton futures closed up 0.48 cent, or 0.86%, to close at 56.41 cents/lb.

Message surface:

1. According to the statistics of the US Department of Agriculture, as of February 25, the U.S. contracted net export of cotton in 2015/16 totaled 1.578 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 603,000 tons, which was 75% of USDA's forecast, which was lower than the same period of last year. 88%.

2. As of March 4th, the total amount of processed lint in the country totaled 4.709 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 702,000 tons, a decrease of 1.953 million tons compared to the normal years in the past four years, of which 3.598 million tons of Xinjiang was processed by lint; the cumulative sales of lint were 2.721 million tons. The year-on-year decrease was 57,000 tons, which was 2.667 million tons less than the normal number in the past four years, of which 1.785 million tons was sold in Xinjiang.

In terms of spot, the price of the cotton index 328 was 12063 yuan/ton, which was 5 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day.

Summary of Views: The U.S. cotton shock rose due to strong U.S. export sales and weaker U.S. dollar. On the domestic front, despite the reduction in production and imports during the year, spot prices continued to decline, and overall cotton sales progress was not optimistic. Coupled with high inventory levels and expectations of increased deposits and stocks, the pattern of Zheng’s cotton weakness remained unchanged in the medium term. Technically, Zheng Cotton 1609 contract Masukura rebounded, showing that the underlying buying support is obvious, short-term extension of the rebound. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see.