â–¡ reporter Ma Shuang
On April 18 (this Tuesday), the central bank restarted the 80 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and achieved a net investment of 70 billion yuan. Analysts said that under the influence of various factors, the liquidity of the money market is facing certain convergence pressure. The central bank provides appropriate liquidity support in the rational, but the attitude of maintaining neutrality in monetary policy is still clear, and the recent liquidity is tightly balanced. High probability event.
Central bank restarts reverse repo operation
On the 18th, the central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 80 billion yuan, including 7 days of 40 billion yuan, 14 days of 20 billion yuan, and 28 days of 20 billion yuan. The winning rates were 2.45%, 2.60%, and 2.75%, respectively. Same as the previous operation. Because of the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase due on the same day, the central bank achieved a net investment of 70 billion yuan. There was also a $2345 billion medium term loan facility (MLF) due on the same day. However, the central bank has carried out an over-expansion of the expired MLF on the 17th.
On the 17th, the central bank carried out M495 million MLF operations, fully covering the MLF that was due to expire in the month. According to Wind data, a total of 451.5 billion MLF expired in April.
From the recovery of the net reversal of reverse repo transactions, over the MLF over time, it is not difficult to see that the willingness of the central bank to supply liquidity has increased recently. According to statistics, since the recovery of the open market operation on April 13, the central bank has achieved a net investment of RMB 190 billion through reverse repurchase and a net investment of RMB 44 billion through MLF operations.
In contrast, from March 24 to April 12, the central bank suspended the open market operation continuously, during which a total of 490 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired, all of which achieved a natural net return.
Multi-factor funding
Insiders pointed out that although the central bank restarted the reverse repo, but the scale was limited, due to the superposition of convertible bond issuance, MLF expiration, corporate quarterly tax payment and other factors, the capital fabric is difficult to continue the loose state at the beginning of this month.
On Tuesday, the interbank market funds continued to tighten. According to Wind data, on the 18th, the inter-bank market pledged repo rate (deposit institutions) mostly went up. Among them, the weighted average interest rates of DR001, DR007, DR014 and DR021 were respectively reported as 2.5129%, 2.9246%, 3.654%, and 4.3705%, respectively. Last day, 7.21PB, 15.75PB, 16.99PB, and 57.68PB were up.
Huachuang Securities reported that the central bank’s large-scale release of MLF on Monday only eased the tension of funds from the margin, but liquidity uncertainty still exists. From the point of view of strength, the M495 delivery of 495.5 billion yuan is obviously not enough, so it is not optimistic about the late funds.
CITIC Securities 600030, the stock team Ming Ming team pointed out that Monday MLF operation in full amount to hedge the recently expired MLF; but from the continuation structure, the one-year MLF operation volume is 367.5 billion yuan, 6 months MLF The operation volume is 128 billion yuan, and the recent MLF of 451.5 billion yuan is all 6 months, indicating that the central bank continues to “lock and shortâ€, reflecting the policy intention of the central bank to gradually raise interest rates and moderate de-leverage.
Haitong Securities 600,837, Jiang Chao believes that liquidity tightening expectations are difficult to eliminate, monetary policy is difficult to loosen in the short term, first, excessive financial prosperity led to asset bubbles, credit in March fell year-on-year, bank assets expansion began to slow down, but the table The high external financing means that the off-balance-sheet leverage is still continuing. Under the background of financial de-leverage, inter-bank deposits are included in interbank liabilities, and MPA is strictly regulated and ready to come. Second, due to the decline in foreign exchange holdings and other reasons, the bank's excess reserves continued to decline. It is estimated that the over-reserve rate in February has dropped to a low level of 1.4%. Since late March, the central bank has continued to return to the net and the money market is tight.
(Editor: Liu Suyuan HN091)
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