[New energy vehicles & ethanol gasoline are being sizzled by the market]
The new energy vehicle concept dominates dozens of cyclical stocks but has fallen more than 10%
Fuel trucks are on the agenda. New energy companies are spread across three core regions.
Hainan Coconut Island, which has no related projects, has been “missed†by the ethanol gasoline concept stock station.
[The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on September 9 that the research push fuel vehicle exit schedule]
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Auto Double Points will release research and suspension of fuel vehicles in the near future
China initiated research to develop a timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. Which countries have developed?
A large amount of empirical information can prove that oil and gas resources are renewable resources! And with the unrenewable of oil and gas, you can continue to produce countless bizarre stories to get into trouble. Fuel vehicle replacement is likely to be a continuation of the Hubbert scam.
Following Germany, Norway, the Netherlands and other countries, the Minister of Ecology and Sustainable Development of France, Nikola Yulo, announced in July that France will completely ban fuel vehicles in 2040. Not only the developed countries, but also the developing countries of India have followed suit, hoping to achieve full electrification of automobile sales in 2030. For a time, the expectation of replacing a fuel car with an electric car is being accepted by more people. The fuel car seems to be a "crossing street mouse."
But is this replacement just an anticipation or a scam? What is the strategic intent behind it? What impact will it have on the future layout of related industries? The author tried to glimpse.
New energy concept stocks gains
Making a scam on the "peak oil theory"
At the beginning of this century, the "peak oil theory" became more and more popular, driving the "doomsday theory" of crude oil supply. It was also fashionable, but with the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, the oil price rose, which stimulated the developers to increase the production of crude oil and make the "end of the day" of crude oil. If it did not come, the "peak" did not come. However, the arrival was only the repositioning of the price relationship between international commodities and capital assets, including crude oil, caused by the sudden change in the actual purchasing power of the US dollar.
The "peak of oil" originated from the "bell curve" of mineral resources discovered by the famous American petroleum geologist Hubbert in 1949. According to Harbert, crude oil is a fossil fuel. The Triassic, Jurassic, Cretaceous dinosaurs and algae that lived in the Mesozoic were buried underground and passed through nearly 250 million years of biochemical reactions. Therefore, as a non-renewable resource, crude oil production in any region will reach its highest point. After reaching its peak, crude oil production in the region will inevitably begin to decline. However, this theory is only a hypothesis, and there is no scientific evidence, but it has become the main basis of the modern "organic oil" theory, and even became the "scientific theorem" of the oil production theory.
In fact, before the publication of this paper, Habert first gave the paper to the chairman of an Anglo-American oil giant. The chairman said: It must be evaluated with Wicks, the most authoritative crude oil reserve expert in the United States. The view of crude oil reserves was courtesy and asked Hubbert to estimate the maximum reserves of crude oil in the paper. At this time, Hubbert took the lead and immediately proposed that the US crude oil reserves were only 150-200 billion barrels, less than half of the estimated reserves of Wicks at that time, that is, 400 billion barrels, and Wicks continued to raise reserves expectations. Once Wicks theory becomes the mainstream in the industry, it is difficult for oil giants to continue to control oil prices, and it is even more difficult to increase profits by increasing oil prices.
In this way, as a tool for commercial profit, an oil geologist has fallen!
In addition, Hubbert also predicted the ultimate global crude oil reserves, said that the world only 1.25 trillion barrels, will reach the peak of mining in 1970. However, after more than half a century of crude oil use, the 2013 World Energy Statistics Yearbook statistics show that global crude oil reserves still have nearly 1.7 trillion barrels. Harbert is wrong, but BP is still wrong!
Frontier science that is not respected and recognized
Based on the theory of crude oil-based organic oil generation, scientists based in the United States believe that the death of plants and animals is decomposed and buried. However, its atomic group is extremely complicated, and the structure has not yet been clarified. Therefore, it is simply called kerogen. However, the kerogen thermal degradation of the oil hypothesis violates the second law of thermodynamics. To this end, the former Soviet scientists made a hypothesis to refute the Western crude oil organic oil theory by taking the world's largest oil field, the Saudi Gavar oil field, as an example, to generate crude oil that has been produced in the oil field. The three-dimensional space of 30 kilometers wide and high is filled with dinosaur meat, and 100% is converted into crude oil, which not only violates the laws of thermodynamics, but also is extremely absurd.
In fact, as early as the early 1950s, scientists in the former Soviet Union had discovered a new theory of crude oil sources. The results of the study surprised these scientists. They concluded that the theory that Americans claim that crude oil originated from biology is purely nonsense. And crude oil reserves are not as limited as the Americans say. The truth is that there are more and more oil fields found in the world. In 1956, the team's research conclusion was announced: "Crude oil and natural gas are not intrinsically linked to buried organisms. They are primitive substances (ie, reactants) that rush from the depths of the earth."
During this period, the Soviets also discovered that the abandoned oil fields can be self-repairing, also known as "self-filling" oil fields. Furthermore, it is believed that crude oil is a primitive substance deep in the earth's crust, which existed in the early stage of the formation of the earth, and was naturally generated by cold eruption into the shallow crust under the action of high temperature and high pressure of the earth's core. Therefore, the total amount of crude oil on Earth is only related to the amount of hydrocarbons generated in the deep layers of the formation, and is related to the depth of drilling (author's note: it should be effective). As a result, the "inorganic oil formation theory" of crude oil was initially formed.
Under the guidance of this theory, it was impossible to find crude oil in the place where crude oil was found by organic generative theory, and a major breakthrough was obtained. For example, the Siberian region, which was called a crude oil wasteland by Western scientists, has explored 11 large oil fields and a super oil field, making the former Soviet Union the world's largest crude oil producer in the 1980s. At the same time, significant discoveries have been made in the Dnepr-Donets basin, which is considered to be a barren land, and the area of ​​the oil field found there is comparable to the huge oil fields on the northern slopes of Alaska.
Despite this, the Russians are silently adhering to this "frontier" science that is not "respected and recognized."
For the benefit of the US elite
In the second half of 1998, the Fed continued to put money into the market and imposed a global coinage tax, which led to a decline in the actual purchasing power of the dollar. The price of bulk commodities, including crude oil, should have risen, but many large oil fields have been discovered in Russia, Africa and Asia. According to the theory of supply and demand, international oil prices will inevitably need to continue to plummet.
In line with the Fed’s strategic mission of levying a coinage tax on the world through currency changes, the US and British oil giants once again throw an upgraded version of the oil peak theory, instructing the Irish petroleum geologist Colin Campbell and the French petroleum geologist Jean Lahariel. Jointly published in Scientific American titled "The End of Cheap Oil." The paper once again predicts that oil production will peak in 2010, making international oil prices (for example, WTI oil prices) rise from $11.63 per barrel in late December 1998 to a maximum closing price of $147.27 per barrel in mid-July 2008. The annualized increase is 122.77%. Not only does it perfectly match the Fed’s levy of a coinage tax on the world, but it also earns excess profits from the oil trade.
During the period, Dick Cheney, the chief executive of the oil service company, also praised Campbell’s views, emphasizing that crude oil is a scarce resource and strategically significant. In November 2000, after being elected as the US Vice President with George W. Bush, he immediately sent troops to Iraq to help American oil companies complete strategic intervention and control over important oil and gas fields including Iraq.
In particular, the Kurdish autonomous government, in spite of the opposition of the Iraqi central government, has issued a large number of exploration and development licenses to major Western oil companies since 2007. Among them, American oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron have got the most lucrative sharing contracts. The 5.2 million Kurds in the autonomous region have achieved unprecedented gains. The per capita GDP has rapidly increased from 800 US dollars in the US-Iraq war in 2003 to 5,600 US dollars, reaching the level of the middle-income countries in the world. The American oil company also began to harvest the "dividends" brought by the US government's continued "asylum" Kurds.
Therefore, the US government is more motivated to set up a bureau.
Kneeling and understanding
As early as 1980, Michael Horbti, a petroleum geologist in Texas, questioned Hubbert's theory and believed that the amount of crude oil extracted would continue to increase. However, the oil giants turned a deaf ear to this, biting the "peak of oil", and even wrote the theory of organic genesis of "bio-oil" into geology textbooks, and unanimously identified oil as "fossil fuel", underground dinosaurs and algae. Other organisms are biochemically reacted, so resources are bound to be limited. And through the control of the media, this view has become the mainstream consensus in the world.
However, the Americans' mouths and actual actions will never be consistent with each other. As early as the mid-to-late 70s of the last century, with the rapid rise of international oil prices from US$2 per barrel to US$40 per barrel, the investment in deep-sea oil and gas development with extremely high risks has dawned and has become economically viable.
In order to make profits, the oil companies with strong comprehensive technical strength in the United States have forced the US government to open the license for deep-sea oil and gas development in the Gulf of Mexico on the grounds that OPEC uses oil weapons to interrupt supply, raise oil prices, and create economic crisis in western developed countries. Immediately, they joined forces to invest heavily into the deep sea of ​​the Gulf of Mexico, seeking long-term high returns.
However, because the deep-sea oil and gas exploration and development technology was not mature enough at the time, and the technology was monopolized by a few American companies, even oil companies with the ability to participate in deep-sea oil and gas development have chosen a predatory development method for deep-sea oil and gas layers. Super-strength mining, in order to recover investment as early as possible, reduce operational risks. Among them, the US Mobile, Texaco-Chevron Oil Company carried out intensive mining in the cooperative development of the OS oil layer in the 330 oilfield in the deep sea block of the Gulf of Mexico. Since 1972, hundreds of millions of barrels (oil equivalent) of natural gas and condensate have been produced at super-strength. Not only does oil and gas production fail over time, but, over time, the oil produced is gradually lighter and less biodegradable. As a result, the US Department of Energy formed the GBRN team to conduct a systematic follow-up study on this bizarre phenomenon.
Today, the domestic public still do not know about the two-dimensional earthquake and the three-dimensional earthquake. In the 1970s, the GBRN team has applied the "four-dimensional earthquake" technology to systematically study the oil and gas migration trajectory, and successfully discovered that the oil and gas from the deep layer gradually The fact that the fault plane fractures migrate upwards and supplement the developed oil layer of the 330 oilfield OS. It was found that vertical and transverse wave velocity reduction occurred in the vertical crack zone, and the channel image of the oil gas migration was observed by Voxel transparent pixel technology. The process was videotaped and named "The Flowing Oilfield." In the videotape, American scientists did not explain where deep oil and gas came from, but it can be confirmed that oil and gas are still in production and continue to rise along deep faults.
Coincidentally, CGG France also showed an example of a four-dimensional earthquake analysis that found that oil and gas migrated from deep to upstream and replenished.
A large amount of empirical information can prove that oil and gas resources are renewable resources! Crude oil does not rely on organic genetic theory. It is an inorganic cause. But in the long-term strategic need, American talents have been squatting to understand the mess! The actual reserves of oil and gas reservoirs are by no means equal to the amount calculated by the prior art such as reservoir volume. It is a dynamic process that has both recovery, replenishment and escape. At this point, the US Department of Energy knew it in the early 1980s, but its official and oil companies not only talked about oil and gas replenishment and escape, but they wanted to use the Hubble "peak oil theory" to price oil and gas. The rise is linked to the non-renewable resources. This intention is to dilute the 1971 US betrayal of the world's commitment to the world, that is, to abolish the monetary mechanism of the dollar to convert gold to a fixed ratio. With the non-renewable of oil and gas, you can continue to produce countless bizarre stories, and today's fuel car replacement is likely to be a new continuation of the Hubbert scam.
Helplessness in "confession"
In 1989, in an interview before his death, Harbert admitted that his method of estimating US crude oil reserves had nothing to do with science. The main purpose of the creation of the fossil fuel theory is to provide theoretical support for the “peak oil theoryâ€, that is, the total amount of crude oil originally produced is limited (the regeneration part is negligible), and the exploitable area is limited to the bedrock of massive sedimentation of paleontology. All the places where such crude oil may have been produced so far have been explored, which means that crude oil is no longer possible. And said that in order to make his theory look authentic, he must become an authoritative expert. Therefore, he changed the "Gaussian curve" slightly and named it "Habbert curve", and in fact the changes of these curves are only their imagination. According to the curve of my own imagination, reverse the crude oil production for a certain period of time, and does not involve any mathematical logic.
It can be seen that Habert is like a gunman who hits which finger, and behind it is a full scam! In the context of the long-term willingness of Western elites to manipulate the prices of various commodities, including crude oil, the price of crude oil is largely independent of changes in nature, supply and demand, inventory, technology, etc., and more depends on Complete the Fed’s currency deposits and the interests of the US-British Group that dominates the price of oil. As long as the control of this stakeholder is still there, it will be the ultimate factor over other factors, interfering with and ultimately determining the price of the product.
Is it advancing the century scam?
Since crude oil is produced inorganically, as long as the earth exists, crude oil and natural gas can be continuously produced by the earth, and there will be no shortage of gasoline and diesel. So why do major countries in the world have to propose alternatives to fuel vehicles?
After 2008, in order to solve the recession caused by the global financial and economic crisis created by the United States, countries have to adopt huge monetary quantitative easing policies, which has resulted in a super overlap of existing industrial industries and a serious overcapacity. With the disappearance of large-scale wars and the decline in the natural mortality rate of the population, these excess capacity cannot be effectively digested, and then a large amount of capital is fixed in the form of products to cover up the cost, increasing the bank’s bad debts. Seeded with operational risks and for the recurrence of the economic crisis.
However, historical experience shows that to get rid of such crises, new products, new industries and new demands need to be created. Electric vehicles not only meet the above conditions, but also “moisturize†the concept of environmental protection and sustainable development. Even if there is no need to replace them, even if power generation from different places has left pollution in an energy resource away from the city, even if it increases The current economic development, but will inevitably cause a large number of sunken costs of capital assets related to crude oil-related industries, and push up the prices of emerging industries and related resources, which in turn will push up the price level of the entire society, and conduct and Stimulating the continued over-currency of the currency and the decline in the actual purchasing power of the currency.
Take the battery of the new energy electric vehicle as an example. If the fuel vehicle is replaced, the battery life and cost are the key. In the Tesla battery cathode material, cobalt nickel aluminum hydroxide is mainly used. As cobalt prices rise, nickel is accelerating the replacement of cobalt, especially the raw material nickel sulfate. Although the main role of nickel in the battery is to increase the energy density of the material and determine the battery capacity, China's nickel ore resources are not abundant, and laterite nickel ore is heavily dependent on imports. Although the domestic nickel intermediates such as nickel oxide, nickel hydroxide and nickel carbonate are rich in sources, nickel sulfate can be prepared by dissolving in sulfuric acid, but the production process is highly polluted by this preparation method.
From the government's point of view, on the one hand, in March 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information and other four ministries jointly promulgated the "Promotion of Automotive Power Battery Development Action Plan", requiring that the new lithium-ion battery system will reach 260Wh/Kg by 2020, almost The current level has doubled. On the other hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the "Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" on April 25, and plans to achieve an annual production and sales of 2 million new energy vehicles by 2020, accounting for about the year's automobile production. 6.67%; by 2025, new energy vehicles account for more than 20% of automobile production and sales, and about 7 million vehicles a year.
It can be seen that the “de-fueling†of Chinese cars is on track, and we seem to have not thought clearly. For example, is there a need for substitution? How much sunk cost will occur after the replacement? How many existing resource assets will be wasted? How many people will be unemployed when creating domestic demand? The most important thing is that while creating new industries, it will stimulate the increase in the actual purchasing power of the currency through the issuance of monetary stimulus.
In fact, we have already rushed too much "fashion". Today, we really don't need to be too "fashionable"!
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