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Production enthusiasm is still high, some products are hard to find
I thought that in June, the polyester market will gradually fade. However, in recent years, the supply of nylon and polyester filament FDY has been tight, which has led many market participants to say that the performance of the polyester market is a bit "anti-day".
China Silk Network monitoring data shows that the polyester market from May to the present has shown a trend of sales volume, and the average monthly production and sales of polyester filament yarn is between 100% and 110%.
In fact, the “anti-day†performance of the polyester market has appeared frequently during the majority of the year, and the market has evolved from “out of expectations†and “expectedâ€.
“In October last year, driven by upstream raw materials, the fabric market started to waver. The price of polyester filaments rose sharply, and the weaving manufacturers in the peak season were heavily stocked.†Wu Xiaofen, an analyst at China Silk Network, told Futures Daily reporters until the Spring Festival this year. The stock of polyester manufacturers has been at a low level, and some varieties of specifications are even out of stock. The market can be described as “hotâ€.
When the market expects that the polyester filament market will continue to be the "bull market" of the year before the Spring Festival, it will encounter the "cold spring" market.
“The upstream raw material ethylene glycol fell sharply, the downstream weaving manufacturers squandered too much goods, and the goods were not active, resulting in the continued decline in polyester prices.†Wu Xiaofen believes that in the first half of this year, the polyester filament market did not appear in a large-scale peak season. “Experienced last year’s crazy rise, this year’s downstream weaving market is more cautious in stocking. Even if the peak season lasts longer, most manufacturers still get the goods at the price.
It is understood that compared with previous years, this year's polyester market peak season lasts for a long time. As of the beginning of June, the fabric market is still stable, and the supply of silk, polyester taffeta and imitation memory is tight. Some specifications are even hard to find. Situation.
The reporter learned that the sales of some niche fabric products continued to be hot, and many fabric manufacturers had to queue up even if they got the goods. For example, monofilaments, with less production, are difficult to meet customer needs, and new orders must be placed at least 20 days to 1 month.
At this time of the year, the off-season atmosphere has become stronger, and at present, the operating rate of each cluster market has not dropped significantly. It is understood that as of the beginning of June, the weaving factory operating rate remained near 80%. Low inventory, good profit, and high production enthusiasm.
On the current polyester market, the “end of the peak season†has not been reduced. Zheng Defei, an analyst at Yide Futures, explained that on the one hand, the polyester chain first entered the era of de-capacity, and the growth rate of capacity in recent years was relatively low. While the upstream PX is in the production period, PTA has the capacity to resume production, so that the upstream profit will be transferred downstream, and the high profit will lead to high operating rate; on the other hand, the terminal order is normal, although there is not much bright spot, but there is not much bright spot, but Just need optimism.
In the investigation, the reporter of the Futures Daily also learned that this year's fabric market environmental protection has also played a certain guiding role. The shrinking production capacity and the switch to the factory have made some old products optimistic.
"Compared with previous years, this year's environmental protection efforts have increased. On the basis of strict control over the printing and dyeing industry, the control of terminal weaving wastewater discharge has been strengthened. Elimination and transformation of backward production capacity have made the supply of polyester individual specifications tight." Gao Shuai, an information analyst, said.
However, in Wu Xiaofen's view, Jiaxing, Keqiao and Wujiang have successively started the environmental remediation of water jet loom, involving more than 100,000 water jet loom. Although the short-term will not be eliminated, the gradual clearing of production capacity will inevitably be demanded. The end affects the polyester yarn, and the problem of oversupply of polyester filament yarn is bound to intensify in the future.
At present, the tight supply of some specifications has enhanced the confidence of the industry. Zheng Youfei believes that although the current polyester market is “not weakâ€, its ability to continue to need close attention. "This round of market is triggered by the mismatch between speculative replenishment and traditional procurement rhythm, or by the improvement of terminal demand. From the macro and financial aspects, combined with the previous research, it can be inferred." In his view, After the end of the “low seasonâ€, with the completion of the downstream replenishment and the completion of the speculative replenishment, the polyester inventories will re-accumulate. At that time, the market will weaken and the time window will be in July.
However, Gao Shuai believes that there are many uncertain factors in the interpretation of the “low seasonâ€. “Currently, only the supply of individual specifications is tight, and the duration of good production and sales data is not long. Overall, terminal inventory pressure still exists.â€
In addition, there is a downward revision in the operating rate of the polyester market. Ningbo has a capacity of 250,000 tons/year of polyester plant, scheduled to stop on June 13 and overhaul for about 10 days; Shaoxing has two sets of polyester plants with a total capacity of 400,000 tons/year. It is planned to stop on June 20 and overhaul one. Month or so. In Gao Shuai’s view, it is necessary to rationally look at market changes, and should not seize the problem of “not off-season in the off-season†and overestimate the late market.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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